Will Turkey intervene in Syria?



As part of the post-World War II order, I am not sure whether we have experienced a period in which the term "U.S.-backed" has lost its sense to such an extent. 

In Syria, the United States currently cannot stand behind any U.S.-backed group except the People's Protection Units (YPG), whose strategic partnership with Russia could not be prevented. The U.S. can neither train and equip groups, nor prevent the massacres caused by Russian airstrikes. On Wednesday, the connections of opposition groups from Azaz to Aleppo, and consequently with Turkey, were cut off by the Russia-backed regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, which brought the reality to light even more. 

In the face of this situation, which marks the most distinct and definite victory of Russia over the course of its four-month invasion in Syria, Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren said: "The Russians at this point have made it very clear that their offensive operations ... are in support of Bashar Assad and his regime." They finally realized it!

The Geneva negotiations have also come to a deadlock due to the Russia-backed Assad regime, and it has become definite that they will yield no positive results unless the game of military domination is stopped. To put it another way, it has become clear once again that a diplomatic solution in Syria can be achieved only through a military solution.

Meanwhile, NATO member Turkey could not find a genuine ally and was left alone, although it has faced many security threats posed by the outlawed PKK, its offshoot YPG and Russia. 


Despite that, in Geneva, where Russia has served as the most significant crutch for Assad, remarks made by Turkey and Saudi Arabia have marked the greatest support for the opposition. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said the opposition had the right to leave the meetings, as its conditions were not met. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was in Saudi Arabia at that time, and the two countries repeated together that they side with the opposition. Another interesting aspect of the meetings was that the Turkish Chief of General Staff, who attended the meeting in Riyadh at the invitation of his Saudi counterpart, was in uniform during the meeting, in which Saudi Arabia's King Salman was also present.

The following day, Russia declared that it would implement new rules of engagement on the Turkish-Syrian border and would hit Turkish jets attempting to cross it. Russia's announcement of a set of rules for the border of other countries provides enough evidence for the idea that Russia has occupied Syria.

When the field is regarded, it can be seen that the U.S. continues to give a red light to the YPG with regard to passing west of the Euphrates, but there are some indications signaling that Russia will try to violate the border. But let's not deceive ourselves. The YPG is currently protecting the U.S. land force positions in Syria. Only three days ago, Brett McGurk, the U.S. special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS (DAESH), paid a visit to Kobane along with British and French authorities in order to make up with the PYD, which could not attend the Geneva meetings because of pressure from Ankara. The YPG militants gave a plate to McGurk to convey their thanks during his visit. However, only a few days ago, the YPG issued a call to attack Turkey.

Under these circumstances it is hard to answer the question in the title. However, the promise, that founding a PKK-linked state to Turkey's south will not be allowed at any cost and the opposition will not be left alone, is still valid.

When looking at the situation through this lens, one can see that the question of whether Turkey will intervene in Syria is not a yes or no question, but a question of when.

Can a miracle happen at the Geneva talks?


The Syrian negotiations in Geneva, which began on Friday, but unfortunately were stillborn, were mobilized soon after Syrian opposition groups in Riyadh decided to participate in the negotiations. With the inclusion of opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC) Chairman Riyad Hijab and three spokesmen in Geneva on Saturday, the process has finally started to show some qualities peculiar to a true negotiation. So what will happen next? Will this meeting be able to stop the bloodshed, resolve problems of migrants whose number is on the rise around the world, resolve the rising tension between sects or reset the balances that have been completely disturbed in the Middle East?

First of all, it would be useful to bring up some fundamental developments. The opposition, which is supported by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, decided to participate in the negotiations upon some tangible promises made by the U.N. and U.S. What are these tangible promises? It is already known that the opposition demanded the end to the sieges ongoing at 18 spots in Syria and the provision of humanitarian aid to the civilians there. Have these conditions been accepted? We do not know the answer yet, as Hijab has not issued any remark on the subject. On the other hand, Syrian envoy to the U.N. Bashar Jaafari, who joined the negotiations on behalf of the regime, pointed out that they would not accept any precondition to initiate negotiations, but they would evaluate demands related to humanitarian conditions. The Democratic Union Party (PYD), on the other hand, left Geneva since it became definite that it was not invited to the negotiations. Even though there is a slight chance that a permanent resolution could be reached in these circumstances, it seems that positive conditions required to make progress in Geneva have been facilitated. The regime is present at the meetings. The opposition arrived in Geneva, although it insistently put forward conditions to initiate negotiations. The PYD crisis has been resolved, and everything has been arranged for shuttle diplomacy.

United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura has met with the HNC delegation, which is bound to the Syrian National Council that represents the opposition. Further meetings are to be organized. De Mistura is scheduled to meet the regime and the HNC successively on Monday afternoon. And since shuttle diplomacy is being conducted, the meetings are held in separate halls.

Aside from the meetings, the parties continue to bring accusations against each other. Jaafari asserts that the opposition is not serious, adding that they would not sit at the table with terrorists. He thinks Saudi Arabia and Jordan are responsible for not making distinctions between terrorist and opponents groups. The opposition delegation, on the other hand, demands the removal of blockades and the end of airstrikes. After first contacts, HNC spokesman Salim Muslet said: "We're always optimistic, but the problem is we're facing a dictatorship there in Syria."

The opposition may leave Geneva at any moment, and the regime insistently continues to blame the opposition. It is also obvious that the recent DAESH attack in Damascus during the Geneva negotiations has favored the regime. They have assembled under the same roof despite being in different halls, which draws an optimistic picture, but ultimately it seems that there are not many reasons to expect much from the negotiations.